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| Analysis of Influencing Factors and Prediction Model for Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Complicated by Abdominal Infection |
| GE Chunyang, CAI Zhaohui, ZUO Shuang, et al |
| The Second People's Hospital of Hefei, Anhui Hefei 230011, China |
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Abstract Objective: To analyze the influencing factors of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) complicated by abdominal infection and to construct a prediction model, providing a reference for early prevention and treatment of AP with abdominal infection.Methods: Data from 103 AP patients admitted to Hefei Second People's Hospital between January 2021 and December 2023 were collected. Patients were divided into infected and non-infected groups based on the presence of abdominal infection. Independent influencing factors for AP with abdominal infection were identified, and a prediction model was constructed. The predictive value of the model for abdominal infection was assessed using ROC curve analysis.Results: Among the 103 AP patients, 32.04% (33/103) had abdominal infections. The predominant pathogens were Gram-negative bacteria, with Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae showing high resistance to common antibiotics. Logistic regression identified age, length of hospital stay, APACHE II score at admission, CRP, PCT, and total NK cell count as independent influencing factors for AP with abdominal infection (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed the model's AUC was 0.843 (95% CI0.792~0.896), with a sensitivity of 61.36%, specificity of 92.06%, Youden index of 0.534, Homser-Lemeshow test P value of 0.267, and concordance rate of 96.12%.Conclusion: The risk of abdominal infection in AP patients is relatively high and is associated with age, length of hospital stay, APACHE II score at admission, CRP, PCT, and total NK cell count. The logistic prediction model effectively predicts the risk of abdominal infection in AP patients.
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2024, Vol. 30 
