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| Analysis of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease Epidemic Trends in Chengde City by ARIMA Multiplicative Seasonal Model |
| CHI Ye, et al |
| Yunnan University, Yunnan Kunming 650504, China |
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Abstract Objective: To establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, A RIMA) to predict the prevalence of HFMD in Chengde City and to provide a basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods: The data were collected from the Chengde Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the Chengde Central Hospital, and the number of HFMD cases in Chengde was counted on a monthly basis using R software, and the seasonal sparse coefficient model was used for model fitting and prediction analysis.Results: The incidence of HFMD in Chengde showed a clear seasonal distribution, with cases concentrated in the third quarter and a secondary peak in the second quarter. The ARIMA (0, 1, 2) sparse coefficient model was chosen to predict the best results for the number of incidence cases in each month in the next three years.Conclusion: The integrated moving average autoregressive model is a good fit for seasonal trends in HFMD incidence and can be used for early warning and prevention and control.
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2022, Vol. 28 
